The single-serve cold-box format point is sharp. Trying to compete in multi-pack velocity with a treat product seems like a category mistake from the start. The hard seltzer parallel is instructive but I think the cold-chain requirement here actually creates a diferent kind of moat, forces plyers into on-premise or specialty retail first which might be better for margin protection anyway.
Your point around the 90-day test window is also an interesting challenge...what 90 day window would you try to launch in to have a successful kickoff? The summer time could make sense, but historically isn't when BevAlc cream brands (like RumChata or Bailey's) see most of their consumption. If you look at an OND launch when BevAlc cream liqueurs have typically seen the majority of their volume, your running into issues around getting your product on the shelf (all major retailer have set what brands their going to carry through the end of the year, distributors aren't taking on new brands, etc). A bigger supplier might be able to overcome some of those hurdles....I don't have a definitive answer to this, there's pros & cons to whatever time period you choice to launch in.
I don't have a clean answer. but here's how I've been thinking about it:
You're right that cream-based BevAlc is an OND story. I think Q4 is something like 50-60% of annual volume for Baileys. This is why I'd avoid OND as a launch window for something new. As you noted, you're fighting for attention, shelf space, and distributor bandwidth against every brand's biggest push of the year. A new SKU is a rounding error next to Baileys' holiday floor displays.
My contrarian take: the ideal window might be late Q1 into Q2. February through April. A few reasons.
Spring shelf resets. Retailers are building their warm-weather planograms and are, in my experience at least, genuinely more open to "what's new" than during the OND lockdown when everything is already locked in.
You're also counter-programming against the category's own seasonality. Cream liqueur volumes collapse after the holidays. A hard dirty soda positioned as a year-round indulgence RTD (not a "cream liqueur") could actually benefit from being the one sweet, creamy thing on shelf when everything else is pivoting to light and refreshing.
And here's the distribution play: if you can prove velocity from March through June, you walk into OND chain review meetings with real data.
The bigger supplier point you raised matters a lot though. A Diageo or Sazerac can muscle through timing challenges that would kill an indie brand. Maybe a PE-backed platform or a regional player with strong distributor relationships could thread the needle on a Q1 launch if the execution is tight. But every option has friction.
The single-serve cold-box format point is sharp. Trying to compete in multi-pack velocity with a treat product seems like a category mistake from the start. The hard seltzer parallel is instructive but I think the cold-chain requirement here actually creates a diferent kind of moat, forces plyers into on-premise or specialty retail first which might be better for margin protection anyway.
Your point around the 90-day test window is also an interesting challenge...what 90 day window would you try to launch in to have a successful kickoff? The summer time could make sense, but historically isn't when BevAlc cream brands (like RumChata or Bailey's) see most of their consumption. If you look at an OND launch when BevAlc cream liqueurs have typically seen the majority of their volume, your running into issues around getting your product on the shelf (all major retailer have set what brands their going to carry through the end of the year, distributors aren't taking on new brands, etc). A bigger supplier might be able to overcome some of those hurdles....I don't have a definitive answer to this, there's pros & cons to whatever time period you choice to launch in.
I don't have a clean answer. but here's how I've been thinking about it:
You're right that cream-based BevAlc is an OND story. I think Q4 is something like 50-60% of annual volume for Baileys. This is why I'd avoid OND as a launch window for something new. As you noted, you're fighting for attention, shelf space, and distributor bandwidth against every brand's biggest push of the year. A new SKU is a rounding error next to Baileys' holiday floor displays.
My contrarian take: the ideal window might be late Q1 into Q2. February through April. A few reasons.
Spring shelf resets. Retailers are building their warm-weather planograms and are, in my experience at least, genuinely more open to "what's new" than during the OND lockdown when everything is already locked in.
You're also counter-programming against the category's own seasonality. Cream liqueur volumes collapse after the holidays. A hard dirty soda positioned as a year-round indulgence RTD (not a "cream liqueur") could actually benefit from being the one sweet, creamy thing on shelf when everything else is pivoting to light and refreshing.
And here's the distribution play: if you can prove velocity from March through June, you walk into OND chain review meetings with real data.
The bigger supplier point you raised matters a lot though. A Diageo or Sazerac can muscle through timing challenges that would kill an indie brand. Maybe a PE-backed platform or a regional player with strong distributor relationships could thread the needle on a Q1 launch if the execution is tight. But every option has friction.